99W熱帶氣旋生成警戒 - 颱風討論

99W TCFA

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Issued at 09/0930Z


WTPN21 PGTW 090930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 125.8E TO 21.1N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 090526Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 125.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
126.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH OVERALL CIRCULATION IS
BROAD, CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR 125E, JUST WEST
OF LUZON ISLAND, PHILIPPINES. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
SURROUNDING WATERS INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
17 KNOTS, VERIFYING THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 18 TO 22 KNOTS NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090526Z AMSU-B IMAGE
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ON THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT 99W HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUFLOW DUE TO A UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100930Z.

http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp9909.gif

PAGASA 命名為 GORIO

At 4:00 pm today, Tropical Depression"GORIO" was estimated based on satellite
and surface data at 340 km East Northeast of Aparri,
Cagayan (18.3°N, 125.3°E)
with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center.
It is forecast to move West Northwest at 11 kph.

CWB

熱帶性低氣壓１００２百帕，在北緯１８．５度，東經１２５度，
即在呂宋島東北方海面，向西北西移動，時速２０公里。有發展的趨勢
，請在菲律賓附近海面、巴士海峽及南海作業船隻特別注意


JTWC預測中心將會十分靠近台灣南部

這樣天氣必受影響

要去南部遊玩的要多加留意了

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