01W 形成 - 颱風討論

94W 搶先拿到門票了，離2009第一個颱風只差臨門一腳囉~~

未來將轉向東北東移動，

路徑圖：http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/wp0109.gif


http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/wp0109web.txt

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.7N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.1N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 124.3E.
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE 30KT
WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. TD01W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TO THE NORTH BEFORE AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL
SUPPRESS THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND INLFUENCES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 020051Z MAY 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 020100).

//
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