04C明日上午2時轉交JTWC - 颱風討論

04C Loke即將登陸西北太平洋
很不幸的是，他最多維持一下下的等級就會被轉化為溫帶氣旋的閃電吃掉了
廢話不多說，我們看下午2時，CPHC的報文吧
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WTPA42 PHFO 260841
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

THE CORE OF LOKE REMAINS INTACT AS IT IS BEING DRAWN AROUND A DEEP
LOW CENTERED 450 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAD
BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE IT HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THIS EVENING...A
0555 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE CENTER. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A 2.5/35 KT BY HFO AND JTWC
TO 3.0/45 KT OUT OF SAB. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
DROPPED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES...AT 18 KT. LOKE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LOW
CENTERED 450 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOKE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY LOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE
CIRCULATION OF A LARGER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TYPHOON ATSANI.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LOKE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP LOW CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CORE REMAINS INTACT FOR NOW WITH OUTFLOW PERSISTING
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL WILL
BE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THE WIND FIELD WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL...AND IN COORDINATION WITH THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...LOKE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO THE
CIRCULATION OF FORMER ATSANI BY 48 HOURS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 33.2N 175.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 36.3N 178.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 41.6N 177.5E 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1800Z 48.7N 172.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER WROE

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