12W生成 - 颱風討論

WDPN32 PGTW 280900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 01 CORRECTED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
(TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
DISORGANIZED FRAGMENTED BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND
IS BASED ON A 280231Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING SEVERAL 30 KNOT
WIND BARBS AT THE EDGE OF SWATH EMBEDDED IN A LARGE REGION OF 25
KNOT WINDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING HINDERED FROM THE EXHAUST
OF NEARBY TY 11W (NESAT) TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE, THERE IS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH MARGINAL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
SSTS ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 12W IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD IN A POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM AND ESTABLISHES THE
FORECAST REASONING.
B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL
PERSIST AND TD 12W WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION. AS TY
11W PASSES SUFFICIENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, A MID TO LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST GUIDING TD 12W NORTHEASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WHILE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE STRENGTHENS, FEEDING INTO TD 12W. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTION FROM TY 11W IS
EXPECTED, MITIGATING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AROUND TAU 72, TD 12W WILL BE
JUST EAST OF TY 11W, IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY. LAND INTERACTION WITH
TAIWAN DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. JUST AFTER TAU
72 TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
CHINA WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF 11W, ALSO
OVER LAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO
THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH TY 11W. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX INTERACTION
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: 11W IS NOW AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND

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