201821 Jebi（燕子） - 颱風討論

WTPQ20 RJTD 280000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 280000UTC 15.4N 157.0E FAIR

MOVE NW 12KT

PRES 1004HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 290000UTC 16.9N 153.6E 50NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 045KT

GUST 065KT

48HF 300000UTC 17.7N 149.7E 95NM 70%

MOVE W 10KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

72HF 310000UTC 18.4N 145.5E 130NM 70%

MOVE W 10KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 085KT

GUST 120KT

96HF 010000UTC 19.8N 141.4E 200NM 70%

MOVE WNW 10KT

120HF 020000UTC 21.7N 138.8E 290NM 70%

MOVE NW 08KT =

==============================================================================
JMA初報分析資料全文

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1821 JEBI (1821)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (JEBI) STATUS. TS JEBI IS
LOCATED AT 15.4N, 157.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.

3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
==============================================================================
定位資料

JTWC JMA

8/26 06Z 11.6N 161.3E 15 TD
8/26 12Z 11.8N 160.8E 15 TD
8/26 18Z 12.0N 160.3E 20 TD
8/27 00Z 12.4N 159.8E 20 TD
8/27 06Z 13.4N 159.0E 25 TD
8/27 12Z 14.1N 158.7E 30 TD AUG27 12Z 13.6N 158.9E 30 TD
AUG27 15Z 13.9N 158.5E 30 TD
8/27 18Z 14.7N 158.2E 30 TD AUG27 18Z 14.6N 157.9E 30 TD
AUG27 21Z 14.8N 157.5E 30 TD
8/28 00Z 15.5N 157.0E 35 TS AUG28 00Z 15.4N 157.0E 35 TS
AUG28 03Z 15.8N 156.6E 40 TS
8/28 06Z 16.2N 156.2E 35 TS AUG28 06Z 16.2N 156.3E 40 TS
AUG28 09Z 16.3N 156.1E 40 TS
8/28 12Z 16.6N 155.3E 40 TS AUG28 12Z 16.6N 155.6E 40 TS
AUG28 15Z 16.7N 154.9E 40 TS
8/28 18Z 16.9N 154.2E 50 TS AUG28 18Z 16.7N 154.4E 50 STS
AUG28 21Z 16.8N 154.1E 50 STS
8/29 00Z 17.0N 153.4E 55 TS AUG29 00Z 17.0N 153.5E 55 STS
AUG29 03Z 17.1N 152.8E 60 STS
8/29 06Z 17.1N 152.3E 65 TY C1 AUG29 06Z 17.3N 152.3E 65 TY
AUG29 09Z 17.3N 152.0E 70 TY
8/29 12Z 17.3N 151.1E 70 TY C1 AUG29 12Z 17.3N 151.4E 70 TY
AUG29 15Z 17.4N 151.0E 70 TY
8/29 18Z 17.4N 150.3E 90 TY C2 AUG29 18Z 17.4N 150.5E 80 TY
AUG29 21Z 17.6N 149.9E 80 TY
8/30 00Z 17.6N 149.1E 95 TY C2 AUG30 00Z 17.6N 149.1E 80 TY
AUG30 03Z 17.5N 148.7E 80 TY
8/30 06Z 17.7N 148.1E 100 TY C3 AUG30 06Z 17.7N 148.1E 85 TY
AUG30 09Z 17.7N 147.4E 85 TY
8/30 12Z 17.7N 146.8E 110 TY C3 AUG30 12Z 17.8N 146.9E 85 TY
AUG30 15Z 17.9N 146.1E 90 TY
8/30 18Z 17.8N 145.4E 140 STY C5 AUG30 18Z 17.8N 145.4E 100 TY
AUG30 21Z 17.8N 144.8E 100 TY
8/31 00Z 17.9N 144.1E 145 STY C5 AUG31 00Z 17.9N 144.2E 105 TY
AUG31 03Z 18.1N 143.5E 105 TY
8/31 06Z 18.2N 142.7E 150 STY C5 AUG31 06Z 18.3N 142.7E 105 TY
AUG31 09Z 18.3N 142.2E 105 TY
8/31 12Z 18.5N 141.5E 150 STY C5 AUG31 12Z 18.5N 141.5E 105 TY
AUG31 15Z 18.7N 140.9E 105 TY
8/31 18Z 19.1N 140.2E 150 STY C5 AUG31 18Z 19.1N 140.3E 105 TY
AUG31 21Z 19.3N 139.7E 105 TY
9/01 00Z 19.6N 139.2E 140 STY C5 SEP01 00Z 19.6N 139.2E 105 TY
SEP01 03Z 19.9N 138.8E 105 TY
9/01 06Z 20.4N 138.3E 135 STY C4 SEP01 06Z 20.4N 138.3E 105 TY
SEP01 09Z 20.7N 137.8E 105 TY
9/01 12Z 21.0N 137.4E 135 STY C4 SEP01 12Z 21.0N 137.3E 105 TY
SEP01 15Z 21.4N 136.9E 105 TY
9/01 18Z 21.8N 136.6E 130 STY C4 SEP01 18Z 21.8N 136.5E 100 TY
SEP01 21Z 22.2N 136.2E 100 TY
9/02 00Z 22.7N 135.8E 115 TY C4 SEP02 00Z 22.5N 135.8E 95 TY
SEP02 03Z 23.2N 135.4E 95 TY
9/02 06Z 23.7N 135.0E 110 TY C3 SEP02 06Z 23.7N 135.0E 95 TY
SEP02 09Z 24.2N 134.8E 95 TY
9/02 12Z 24.5N 134.4E 110 TY C3 SEP02 12Z 24.5N 134.4E 95 TY
SEP02 15Z 25.0N 134.2E 95 TY
9/02 18Z 25.5N 133.8E 95 TY C2 SEP02 18Z 25.5N 133.8E 95 TY
SEP02 21Z 25.9N 133.6E 95 TY
9/03 00Z 26.4N 133.1E 100 TY C3 SEP03 00Z 26.6N 133.2E 90 TY
SEP03 03Z 26.9N 132.8E 90 TY
9/03 06Z 27.4N 132.5E 95 TY C2 SEP03 06Z 27.5N 132.6E 85 TY
SEP03 09Z 28.0N 132.5E 85 TY
9/03 12Z 28.6N 132.6E 90 TY C2 SEP03 12Z 28.6N 132.6E 85 TY
SEP03 15Z 29.4N 132.6E 85 TY
9/03 18Z 30.3N 132.8E 80 TY C1 SEP03 18Z 30.3N 132.8E 85 TY
SEP03 21Z 31.3N 133.3E 85 TY
9/04 00Z 32.3N 133.6E 75 TY C1 SEP04 00Z 32.4N 133.9E 85 TY
SEP04 03Z 33.8N 134.6E 85 TY
9/04 06Z 35.3N 135.9E 65 TY C1 SEP04 06Z 35.6N 135.7E 75 TY
SEP04 09Z 37.1N 136.5E 65 TY
9/04 12Z 38.9N 137.7E 55 TS SEP04 12Z 38.7N 138.2E 65 TY
SEP04 15Z 40.9N 138.8E 65 TY
========FINAL======WARNING======= SEP04 18Z 43.2N 140.0E 60 STS
SEP04 21Z 44.8N 140.5E 60 STS
SEP05 00Z 47.0N 139.0E -- EX

--