24W TCFA - 颱風討論

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN22 [text]
Issued at 20/0300Z

WTPN22 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 138.9E TO 12.2N 132.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 138.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
139.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH
OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192253Z
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, ORGANIZING CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. PRESSURE FALLS AT YAP HAVE BEEN
ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 MB OVER 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH OUTFLOW CHANNELS FORMING IN BOTH THE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND THE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
NNNN

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