90W GW TCFA - 颱風討論

準昌鴻~

JMA: https://imgur.com/UBsz7R7.jpg

目前GW就會有五日預報

誤差圈仍非常大，代表變數也很大

http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html

熱帯低気圧
令和02年10月04日22時15分 発表

<04日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 日本の南
中心位置 北緯 22度10分(22.2度)
東経 139度25分(139.4度)
進行方向、速さ ほとんど停滞
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<05日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 日本の南
予報円の中心 北緯 24度00分(24.0度)
東経 138度40分(138.7度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速 30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径 150km(80NM)

<06日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 日本の南
予報円の中心 北緯 24度20分(24.3度)
東経 137度40分(137.7度)
進行方向、速さ ほとんど停滞
中心気圧 980hPa
中心付近の最大風速 30m/s(60kt)
最大瞬間風速 45m/s(85kt)
予報円の半径 240km(130NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 310km(170NM)

<07日21時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 日本の南
予報円の中心 北緯 25度10分(25.2度)
東経 133度10分(133.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 965hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 370km(200NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 480km(260NM)

<08日21時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 沖縄の南
予報円の中心 北緯 25度30分(25.5度)
東経 129度10分(129.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 965hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速 55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径 520km(280NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 650km(340NM)

<09日21時の予報>
強さ 強い
存在地域 東シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 25度30分(25.5度)
東経 125度05分(125.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 955hPa
中心付近の最大風速 40m/s(80kt)
最大瞬間風速 60m/s(115kt)
予報円の半径 700km(390NM)
暴風警戒域 全域 850km(460NM)

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JTWC: https://imgur.com/VFfOB4u.jpg

報文中大致提及

目前 GFS 和 NAVGEM 支持北轉

ECMWF 和 UKMET 則預測較偏西

但 EC 和 GFS 的系集都顯示非常大的不確定性

不過大致未來二十四小時會先朝西北方移動，發展成颱機會大

WTPN21 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.5N 139.9E TO 24.6N 137.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.8N 139.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.8N 139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY
201 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING, DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
DESPITE THE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 040404Z
AMSR2 36GHZ AND 040646Z SSMIS 37GHZ RETRIEVALS. FURTHERMORE, DATA
FROM A 032352Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.
THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FURTHER DEPICTS 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGER, 20-30 KTS WINDS
DISPLACED > 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. INVEST 90W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OVER THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS PREDICT
A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE ECMWF AND UKMET CALCULATE
WESTWARD SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
BIFURCATE, SUGGESTING BOTH MODELS CONSIDER THE DISPARATE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THIS DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050900Z.//
NNNN



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