90W TCFA - 颱風討論

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未來將先直撲東沙島海域..


WTPN21 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3N 122.2E TO 20.6N 117.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 031830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7N 121.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
123.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDAING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A CDO-LIKE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A
031542Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. SYNOPTIC OBSERV-
ATIONS FROM NORTHERN LUZON SHOW SLP NEAR 1002 MB WITH 2 TO 3 MB
24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NEAR TAIWAN AND NEAR 23N 135E PLUS
EXCELLENT, BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, JUST WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED
ON THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED TRACK AWAY FROM
LUZON IN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 041930Z.//
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