90W TCFA - 颱風討論

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WTPN21 PGTW 280130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 151.4E TO 14.5N 145.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
272330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N
150.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N

151.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 150.1E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CIRCULATION SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION,
FAVORABLE SSTS AND IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LLCC STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290130Z.//

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