90W TCFA - 颱風討論

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WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 165.2E TO 9.1N 159.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 163.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
165.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD
AREA OF TURNING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012230Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS DEEP FORMATIVE BANDING BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW
AND LOW TO MODERATE (5 TO 10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS A
POINT SOURCE REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//
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