91W TCFA - 颱風討論

圖 http://ppt.cc/YhKy

WTPN21 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 128.2E TO 7.9N 125.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 127.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
128.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
NORTHTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 160933Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
DEFINED DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL BROAD AND THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH REMAINS FRAGMENTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED TO MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 25 KNOTS) WHILE HIGHLY DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WEAKLY DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS MINDANAO. DUE TO THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171500Z.//
NNNN

--