91W TCFA - 颱風討論

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9117web.txt
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9117.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 140230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 140.0E TO 11.0N 134.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. A 132112Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150230Z.//
NNNN

感覺稍微有點給快了，老J自己也在報文表示現況不確定是否達到預警標準。
不過隨著LLCC逐漸有對流覆蓋且出現旋捲性，加上未來環境優良還是發了。

數值預測今年最有成為大物潛力的系統，
如果明顯發展確實如老J所說比數值提前快2天，未來可能預報變動不小。

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