91W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報> - 颱風討論

JTWC 91W TCFA

好消息是：
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9118.gif
▲ 目前是偏西北西。這樣應該不發海警了吧。

原文如下：[ http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9118web.txt ]
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WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 148.6E TO 12.6N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 147.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012336Z
MHS 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN
ELONGATED, FORMATIVE LLCC. A 011101Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 15
KNOT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 160E,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW VIGOROUS EASTERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH MAY FUEL
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//
NNNN
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