92W TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 192300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 136.3E TO 13.6N 130.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 192132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 135.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
138.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 191840Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS
IMPROVED BANDING INTO AN ELONGATED, YET DEFINED LLCC. RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING MOISTURE
ENVELOPE AND MAY SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED OVERHEAD, AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LIGHT (05-10 KTS). SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO STEADY IMPROVEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202300Z.
//
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