92W TCFA - 颱風討論

2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.1N 151.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS APARTIALLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHDEEPENING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A 271401Z AMSU 89GHZIMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARCWRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A COINCIDENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING ABROAD SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THESYSTEM, AND WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSISREVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AIDED BYAN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL MODELSINDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY IN THENORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AREESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATEDTO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TOHIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

http://i.imgur.com/XUbzg2t.jpg

海棠即將誕生？

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