92W TCFA - 颱風討論

https://imgur.com/lmYJyyg
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9218web.txt

WTPN21 PGTW 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4N 137.0E TO 20.0N 127.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
140130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N
136.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 138.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 136.0E, APPROXIMATELY
625 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 132113Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. A 132348Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 14/0000Z SHIP REPORT
AT 20.0N 135.8E, 25NM NNW OF THE CENTER, INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AT 22 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1003MB, WHICH SHOWS SOME
STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150200Z.//
NNNN



目前預測仍是以92W取得主導權獲得山神名字機會較高，以通過巴士海峽的預測為主流，

後期通過恆春南方後的速度和方向目前仍是一日數變，

台海北上或一路西行至珠三角甚至粵西海南一帶都有，速度也有很大的分歧

未來須密切觀察並注意海邊風浪。

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