92w TCFA GW - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 200800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 124.6E TO 19.7N 119.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
124.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
125.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW IS FUELING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED
ON THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LLCC AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210800Z.//
NNNN
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GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 17.3N 123.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 18.5N 121.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 145E 47N 153E
53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 32N 167E 39N 164E 40N 149E 43N
145E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 38N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 27N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 52N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 49N 173E EAST 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

風切變一微弱
馬上就響警報了嗎
去哪裡都無所謂了啦
捲些雲過來降降溫就好
這幾天真是太變態了
天天發高燒

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