93W TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 271400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 128.4E TO 16.4N 124.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
127.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 129.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED FEEDER BANDS THAT HAS
FURTHER CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
271144Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT CLEARLY OUTLINES THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AS THE STORM MOTION
BECAME IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED WESTWARD BY A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED BANDING AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281400Z. //
NNNN
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TPPN11 PGTW 271308 COR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 27/1132Z

C. 12.7N

D. 127.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .30 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDS A 1.5 DT. MET/PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0906Z 12.4N 128.0E SSMS
27/0909Z 12.4N 128.3E SSMS


BELMONDO

CI 1.5了
結果 "蘇拉"颱風會是93W 嘛 XD?

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