93W TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 291430MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 164.8E TO 12.1N 155.1EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDSIN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT291400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N162.6E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N164.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NMNORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITEIMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). A 291021Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCCWITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING. A 291021Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGEREVEALS AN AREA
OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLEWITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AMARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELLPOSITIONED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHERDEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICALCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY301430Z.//NNNN

老J在剛剛發佈TCFA了
GFS06Z表示去九州
EC00Z直接穿心
持續觀察囉！

-----
Sent from JPTT on my Sony D5303.

--