93W TCFA - 颱風討論

http://imgur.com/fDh90l1.gif

老J發TCFA囉~~~準天鴿颱風

簡要翻譯一下重點:

1.寬闊的LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)

2.垂直風切小(5-10kts)、偏高海溫(31度)、良好外流

3.模式顯示在未來12~36h會有發展，可能朝台灣一帶靠近


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EC今天00Z系集預報:

93W http://i.imgur.com/sjxe6DG.jpg

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WTPN21 PGTW 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 130.7E TO 21.7N 125.5E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 129.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 190927Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN CURVED BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN FLANKS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
ANIMATION, THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ALSO, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31C) AND SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN 12-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW
OF THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND HEIGHTENED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201400Z.//
NNNN

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