93W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報> - 颱風討論

JTWC 93W TCFA

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9318.gif
▲ 好像會飄向北方，再觀察囉。

原文如下：[ http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9318web.txt ]
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WTPN21 PGTW 052030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 133.9E TO 23.7N 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
051900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 133.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY
585 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 051818Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH WEAK BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
CONFIRMS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD TO MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT VARY ON THEIR
INTENSITY SOLUTIONS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH,
AND GETS ABSORBED BY 17W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062030Z.//
NNNN
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