93W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報> - 颱風討論

JTWC 93W TCFA

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9318.gif
▲ 今年的日本似乎快成了颱風必去的觀光景點。

原文如下：[ http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9318web.txt ]
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WTPN21 PGTW 251430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.6N 154.7E TO 30.6N 149.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250912Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.0N 154.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 157.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY
705 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 251044Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A POLEWARD
TRAJECTORY. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE A SHORT LIVED SYSTEM,
TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261430Z.//
NNNN
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