94W TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 281630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 153.9E TO 20.6N 159.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 155.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.4N 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY
560 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION BANDING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THE PREVIOUS TWO
QUIKSCAT PASSES HAVE ALSO DEPICTED THIS LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OF UNFLAGGED WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALOFT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY TUTT
CELLS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. IN ADDITION TO GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A RIDGE SOUTH OF THE LLCC IS ENHANCING EQUATOR-
WARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED DEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE ENVIROMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS >> GOOD <<.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291630Z.//

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