94W TCFA - 颱風討論

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9414.gif
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9414web.txt

WTPN21 PGTW 101700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
235 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 142.7E TO 12.6N 134.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 142.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 9.0N
144.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF
YAP. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 101210Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING SOME CONSOLIDATION COMPARED TO 12
HOURS AGO. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP INDICATE A DROP IN PRESSURE
OF 02 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VARYING LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION AND HIGH (20 TO 30 KTS) IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111700Z.//
NNNN



娜克莉之後老J就變得很積極啊~
94W預報有略為北調並調強強度的趨勢，但應該不至於登陸台灣。

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