95W-TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 153.3E TO 14.7N 145.5E

WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY

AT 251730Z INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N

152.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N

155.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST

OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN

CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC) AND A 251931Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE

LOW LEVEL BANDS CONVERGING NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER

LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING JUST WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ACCESS TO POLEWARD

OUTFLOW INTO A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)

LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 DEGREES TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED

CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT

OF A SIGNFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

262100Z.//

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