95W TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 282330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 134.2E TO 14.8N 137.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
282300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
136.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, A
282024Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROAD
LLCC. RECENT SURFACE WINDS AT KOROR SHOW SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THE RECENT SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-
LEVEL GRADIENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS (500-2500 FEET),
INDICATIVE OF THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ENVIRONMENT. OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT WITH A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292330Z.//
NNNN

WTPN21 PGTW 282330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 134.2E TO 14.8N 137.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
282300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
136.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, A
282024Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROAD
LLCC. RECENT SURFACE WINDS AT KOROR SHOW SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THE RECENT SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-
LEVEL GRADIENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS (500-2500 FEET),
INDICATIVE OF THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ENVIRONMENT. OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT WITH A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292330Z.//
NNNN

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9513.gif

東北走 紗優那那

--