96W TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 300900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 140.4E TO 13.3N 134.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
140.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD, BUT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 300031Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS REVEALED AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHILE A 300711Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE
DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM PROCEEDS WEST. DUE TO THE
CONTINUALLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310900Z.//

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GFS 06Z

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