96W TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 101500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 118.2E TO 19.8N 116.2E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 15.0N 118.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12

KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 13.3N 119.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118E, APPROXIMATELY 185

NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)

WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE

CENTER. A 101029Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS A BROAD

CIRCULATION WITH INCREASINGLY SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.

THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH

LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE

SOUTHWEST, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES C).

THERE ARE HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF

THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL

TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DEVELOP

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

111500Z


http://imgur.com/a/3svCw

目前JTWC的定位在15.0N 118E

以時速25公里的速度朝北北西移動

發展環境良好

垂直風切弱(5~10 KTS )

高層外流輻散良好

海溫大約攝氏29~31度

中央氣象局和日本氣象廳皆已升格為T.D.

目前看來這個系統未來是有可能發展為輕度颱風的

EC與NCEP皆預報會朝香港以東(大概是汕尾的位置)移動

沒意外的話將是今年第一個有外圍環流影響到臺灣的熱帶系統


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