97W TCFA - 颱風討論

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9715web.txt
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9715.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 141730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 144.8E TO 6.5N 137.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 144.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 144.6E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
141150Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD AND
CONSOLIDATE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO
INDICATES THE LLCC IS GETTING MORE DEFINED WITH 25 KNOT RAIN FLAGGED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151730Z.//
NNNN

EC不看好強度，但預測97W在菲中群島解體後可能會變成一片大低壓帶籠罩當地...

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