98W TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 135.7E TO 14.2N 133.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
136.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-
NORTH EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE CENTER. A 101101Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC WITH OUTER BANDS IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT 98W IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS AND WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111400Z.//
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