99W TCFA - 颱風討論

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文 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9913web.txt
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WTPN21 PGTW 160430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 17.1N 132.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160400Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 132.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING QUASI-STATIONARY.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 160044Z METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER WITH EXPOSED, SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTINCT
LLCC AS TS 16W TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO JAPAN. A 160047Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEINED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTH QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS THEN
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170430Z.//
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