99W TCFA(升格26W) - 颱風討論

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WTPN22 PGTW 062130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
060221Z SEP 18// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 060
230)// RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 170.7E TO 13.6N 163.0E WITHIN THE NEX
T 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICA
L CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 2
3 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 062100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCA
TED NEAR 12.1N 169.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 173.5E, IS N
OW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 169.6E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEI
N ATOLL, RMI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTE
NT DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE
FEEDER BANDS FAST CONSOLIDATING. A 061902Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HIGHL
IGHTS THE FORMATIVE BANDS AND A WELL-DEFINED LLC FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDE
NCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTF
LOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL TOWARD A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUR
ES OF 29-31 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AR
E IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WI
NDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED T
O BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPG
RADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 072130Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPIC
AL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.6E.//
NNNN
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JTWC分析資料全文

WDPN31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/
PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 01// R
MKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOC
ATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, RMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING DISTURBANCE WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR TH
E CENTER OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. FORMATIVE BANDS, ALBEIT SHALLOW AND FRAGME
NTED, ARE CLEARLY SPIRALING INTO A WEAK BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC
). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS IS BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
S THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND E
XCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL TOWARD A TUTT CELL TO T
HE NORTHWEST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30-
32 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPI
CAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN FO
R THIS SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ST
R. AFTERWARD, IT WILL FLATTEN TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR BUILDS.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL PREVAIL AND PROMO
TE A HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION; BY TAU 72, AT APPROXI
MATELY 370 NM EAST OF GUAM, TD 26W WILL REACH 75 KNOTS. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 26
W WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD UP TO TAU 96. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MOR
E WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER GUAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU 108. AN INC
REASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONCURRENT WITH THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK, IN ADDITION T
O THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFIC
ATION. BY TAU 120, TD 26W WILL REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AT 135 KNOTS. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TOW
ARD THE EXTENDED TAUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POSSIBLE INITIAL ERRATIC MOTION ASS
OCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONES, THERE IS - FOR NOW - LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE F
IRST JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN