JTWC 00Z預測哈格比顛峰將追平Haiyan！ - 颱風討論

※ 引述《keroromoa (皮丘使用飛天！)》之銘言：
: 今天是南瑪都登陸枋寮十週年，
: 十年前的南瑪都顛峰也達到STY，
: 十年後的12月，哈格比不僅成為STY，
: JTWC再度給出理智斷線的預測啦！
: WTPN31 PGTW 040300
: MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
: SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
: RMKS/
: 1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013
: 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: ---
: WARNING POSITION:
: 040000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 133.9E
: MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
: POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
: POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
: PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
: 　 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 133.9E
: ---
: FORECASTS:
: 12 HRS, VALID AT:
: 041200Z --- 11.0N 131.6E
: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
: ---
: 24 HRS, VALID AT:
: 050000Z --- 11.5N 130.0E
: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
: ---
: 36 HRS, VALID AT:
: 051200Z --- 11.7N 128.6E
: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
: ---
: EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
: 48 HRS, VALID AT:
: 060000Z --- 11.8N 127.6E
: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
: ---
: 72 HRS, VALID AT:
: 070000Z --- 12.7N 126.1E
: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
: 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
: 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
: 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
: VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
: ---
: LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
: ---
: 96 HRS, VALID AT:
: 080000Z --- 14.1N 124.6E
: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
: ---
: 120 HRS, VALID AT:
: 090000Z --- 14.7N 122.8E
: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
: WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
: ---
: REMARKS:
: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 133.3E.
: SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM NORTH
: OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
: PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 50
: FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
: NNNN
: 哈格比目前正快速清空中，對流-84.1度已經是海燕等級！
: 老J這次的預測可能不會放羊。
: 如果清空至和黃蜂一樣的眼溫，
: 就不是成為今年風王這麼簡單了，
: 難道會這麼快就出現跟燕王平起平坐的颱風嗎？
: 而且老J竟然預測顛峰會持續36小時...
: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=HAGUPIT
: 另外哈格比目前路徑仍有變數
: 老J認為會直撲馬尼拉
: NMC認為會重覆去年海燕路徑
: 其他三家則是比NMC偏南，不過這種路徑恐怕是同時影響海燕跟寶發的災區，
: 不論如何，菲菲這次都要提高警覺啊...



昨天我在颱風吧文章,曾拿出海燕和哈格比在東經133度的情況

東經133度的時候

海燕

CMG環-80.1 WMG暖心+13.3 ADT8.1.4 - CI 7.6 T 7.6 7.6 7.6
http://i.imgur.com/PMri9yl.gif

哈格比

CDG環-81.2 WMG暖心+17.6 ADT8.1.4 - CI 7.7 T 7.7 7.7 7.7
http://i.imgur.com/M8e0Iip.gif

可見哈格比的霸道. ("黑"格比)

海燕很早就開眼了.經過不少置換.直到當時這段時間是過了帛琉後. cdo開始修好的.風眼轉大
對流正好要加強

而哈格比風眼很晚開啟.但是和鸚鵡相似,開啟小風眼後猛爆增強的類型.
這和海燕 黃蜂有點不同的地方.

當時有很完善的cdo 同心圓出現..小風眼..完全複製金娜薇的同心圓.


可惜哈格比水汽正好藍眼時.cdo已開始變形.. 而海燕則是越來越強

雖然哈格比置換速度一絕.今日重新加強..但是底層右側薄弱..至今風眼賭塞..可能再上望c5
就難了



這點可看出,環境也有差異. 一個12月 一個11月
但哈格比已經不容易了

至少RSMC承認他是1971年以來12月風王.

另外海燕當時的緯度也比哈格比低.

不過我覺得.要說今年風王 .. 三者都有特色
但是黃蜂外型是最適合當風王的. 比起1997年..更適合選出

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