TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 - 颱風討論

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WTNT41 KNHC 200242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE
NORMAL FASHION. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS
DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 45 KT. FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS
CENTER IS OVER LAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED
BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE FAY
IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER
ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST SHIPS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER.

自從今日稍早FAY在佛州上演意料外的強度增強...此風暴現在表現正常. 衛星和雷達
顯示以降級了...包括風眼已不在明顯...以及海面觀察推測最大風速已經減弱到四十五
節左右. FAY將可能更加減弱當中心位於陸地. 當動畫的水氣影像描繪出
高層的OUTFLOW PATTERN 完全地令人印象深刻. 除此以外FAY在星期三有可能當她
重回水域時開始再增強. 官方的強度預測和最新的SHIPS預報相似. 這應該注意的是
HWRF和GFDL兩個模型展現出比官方預報更加再增強化. 當然... 未來FAY的強度
同樣地依賴她的中心待在水域有多久.

RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND
THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING
PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING
JUST OFFSHORE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

雷達定位在幾小時前顯示出FAY近乎滯留...然後有點向東晃動. 現在她出現中心
重回西北西路徑...或是030度/4浬. GLOBAL模型持續指示接下來一到二日有一個
500毫巴的脊建立於FAY北方. 此STEERING PATTERN的演化應該約
四十八小時內開始阻擋熱帶氣旋的西北移動. 路徑模型IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FAY將出海後轉回海岸. 此處NHC的路徑預報尚未有任何改變.
這和動態模型一至的意見接近或是往南一點點.






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