TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 - 颱風討論

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WTNT41 KNHC 170246
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN
FACT...GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38
KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING
SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT.
ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES...AND
IF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS
A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN.

一架偵察機在今天下午在FAY花了數小時發現此氣旋在中心北側和
東側擁有明顯的強風環流. 事實上... 在古巴的關達納摩最近報告三十八節
的持續風速和四十五節的陣風風速. 初始強度設定為四十節.
衛星影像指示出自從在希斯盤紐拉的高山地區造成破壞之後雲層分布正
逐漸有良好的重整. FAY擁有充足的對流外層,以及
建立完善的颱母(UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW). 海平面氣壓場周圍已經自從
昨天以來以五毫巴逐步下降... 一般來說這是一個發展的徵兆.
所有的因素暗示是增強中. 無論如何... 增強的速率得視中心移動時離
陸地有多近...以及如果FAY能夠發展出內核. 到時候... 官方預報需要適度
的增強. 假如FAY依然還在水域她可能以颶風等級接觸古巴中部...
但同如預報指出這非常有可能發生於墨西哥灣東南部. 值得注意的是
現在最新的HWRF和GFDL模式預測不再顯示有強勁的增強.


FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS
INDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS
BRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

從偵察機的定位和古巴的雷達資料顯示出FAY正朝西方或是以二七五度十二浬時速
移動. FAY已經幾乎接觸到副熱帶脊的西南角,所以接下來可預測在二十四到
三十六小時有逐漸地轉西北. 這將會緊接著在高壓西緣轉北... FAY應該會在
明天左右移動到非常接近古巴南方海岸...然後她應該會西北移動非常接近墨西哥灣
極東海域上或是佛羅里達西海岸上. 路徑追蹤尚未有明顯的改變...以及大部分的模式
對四十八小時內的預報極度地一至. 隨著一些模式帶出FAY位於佛羅里達以及其他的
模式保持在墨西哥灣,四十八小時的路徑散佈後變成更加分散. 官方預報是根據在共識
之上... WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ON THIS TRACK...WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

根據路徑... 警戒可能在星期天一早發布在佛羅里達南部和佛羅里達群島.




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