WMO：2014年初天氣 狂野的開始 - 颱風討論

來源：http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/index_en.html



彭啟明老師翻譯出了這篇文章的大綱

世界氣象組織(WMO)，於2/14日發表一個新聞稿，提出，2014年，極端天氣帶來一個狂野
的開始(wild start)。

美國從去年12月底開始受到北極渦旋的影響，幾乎48個州都受到冰雪急凍。另一方面，阿
拉斯加卻是異常的高溫，經歷了有紀錄以來第三暖的一月。西岸的加州因為降雨少，也開
始進入乾旱的狀態。

因著大氣噴流波動的關係，通常北美東岸若是寒冷的天氣，同時歐洲也會受到溫帶氣旋的
影響。

英國12月至1月降下破紀錄的雨量且降雨日數長使得多處有持續的淹水。歐洲大陸沿岸的
地區受到溫帶氣旋影響也有淹水的狀況發生。

相對於歐洲和北美，亞洲的蒙古和中國東部在月平均溫度上卻是極端偏高，而中國一月份
的平均降雨量是1987年來最少的。南半球的澳洲、阿根廷和巴西也受到熱浪的影響氣溫偏
高。澳洲夏天的平均溫度創下歷史新高，坎培拉在整個夏天有19日的高溫高於35度，比平
均的5.4日高出許多。

後記: 接下來就要注意春天的動態，不會輸給冬天的天氣，而接下來聖嬰的發展動態也值
得關注。

Parts of the world have witnessed a series of extreme weather conditions in
the first six weeks of 2014, continuing a pattern that was set in December
2013.

Much of the United States of America has experienced cold waves and major
winter storms, whilst California remains gripped by drought.

The United Kingdom has seen its wettest December-January period on record,
with severe, widespread and prolonged flooding. A combination of strong
winds, storms and high tides caused damage and flooding in other coastal
areas of Europe. There has been unusually heavy snowfall in the southern Alps.

Monthly mean temperatures were extremely high from eastern Mongolia to
eastern China.

In the Southern hemisphere, Australia, Argentina and Brazil experienced
extended heatwaves.

Throughout this period, national meteorological and hydrological services
provided forecasts and regularly-updated warnings.



原文後面則是提到這些地區極端天氣的詳細紀錄

（包括溫度、降水量，以及上一次有這樣的紀錄為何時等）


最後附上總結，大致翻譯一下

The role of climate change

In response to commentary about the links between the January 8-9 cold snap
and climate change, President Obama's Science and Technology Advisor, Dr.
John Holdren, had the following to say:

"If you’ve been hearing that extreme cold spells disprove global warming, don
’t believe it. No single weather episode can prove or disprove global
climate change. Climate is the pattern of weather geographically and over
seasons. A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold
experienced by the United States is a pattern we can expect to see with
increasing frequency as global warming continues."

如果你聽到有人說極端寒冷駁斥了全球暖化這種言論，不要相信它。
沒有一個天氣現象可以證明或駁斥全球氣候變遷。
一些證據暗示著若全球暖化仍在持續，美國這種極端寒冷的天氣會變得更加頻繁。

"I believe the odds are that we can expect as a result of global warming to
see more of this pattern of extreme cold in the mid latitudes and some
extreme warm in the far north."

由於全球暖化，我們可以看到中緯度天氣變得嚴寒時，更遙遠的北方則會變得極度溫暖。


The UK’s Met Office issued the following statement:

“As yet, there is no definitive answer on the possible contribution of
climate change to the recent storminess, rainfall amounts and the consequent
flooding. This is in part due to the highly variable nature of UK weather and
climate.

Nevertheless, recent studies have suggested an increase in the intensity of
Atlantic storms that take a more southerly track, typical of this winter's
extreme weather. There is also an increasing body of evidence that shows that
extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense, and that the rate of
increase is consistent with what is expected from the fundamental physics of
a warming world.

More research is urgently needed to deliver robust detection of changes in
storminess and daily/hourly rain rates and this is an area of active research
in the Met Office. The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic global
warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms
and their associated rainfall. Such models are now becoming available and
should be deployed as soon as possible to provide a solid evidence base for
future investments in flood and coastal defences.”

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