台灣本世紀末 逾一成國土將泡水中 - 地球科學討論

我直接發EMAIL問了汪中和老師，老師回信給了我以下的資訊，但老師沒有直接回答我的
質疑。

下面的文章簡單來說，就是有學者質疑IPCC的推估太保守，學者認為海水面上升在2100
年時，一定超過一公尺。

但是，看完文章的人應該都會覺得，那些話不就只是嘴砲？而沒有實際數據跟計算。

唯獨有一句話值得參考，就是IPCC承認他們「未將南極與格陵蘭融冰列入計算」，我相信
這一定會影響海水面上升速度的推估，但到底影響多少？不知道！

回頭再看一次媒體報導的內容，『IPCC預測...』，事實上IPCC的預測就算有錯，他也是
預測不到一公尺，我們不能自己把別人對IPCC的批評「移花接木」為『IPCC預測...』吧？

我認為環境變遷應該以傳遞正確資訊為第一優先，而不是以「誇大」或「以訛傳訛」的
新聞報導來譁眾取寵，例如「太平洋島國土瓦魯即將被淹沒，全國移民」的新聞，就把
「移民」這個「可能」，當成「正在進行」的消息來報導，只為了新聞標題能「聳動」。

如果因為我英文不好，誤解了些什麼，還請大家不吝指證，謝謝～

Sea level rise underestimated: scientists

Wednesday, 11 March 2009

The UN's climate change panel may have severely underestimated the sea level
rise caused by global warming, say a group of climate scientists.

"The sea level rise may well exceed 1 metre by 2100 if we continue on our
path of increasing emissions," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, speaking at the International
Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen.

"Even for a low emission scenario, the best estimate is about 1 metre,"he says.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 predicted
global warming would cause sea level to rise by between 18 and 59 centimetres
this century.

The IPCC said at the time the estimate could not accurately take into account
factors such as the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Many
scientists criticised the number as too conservative.

"The ice loss in Greenland shows an acceleration during the last decade,"
says Greenland researcher Professor Konrad Steffen, director of the
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the
University of Colorado, Boulder.

"The upper range of sea level rise by 2100 might be above 1 metre or more
on a global average, with large regional differences depending where the
source of ice loss occurs," he says.

Early action

CSIRO researcher Dr John Church, who is also with the Centre for Australian
Weather and Climate Research in Hobart, says rising oceans will lead to more
frequent devastating floods in coastal areas.

The faster humans limit carbon dioxide emissions, the greater the chance to
avoid the most extreme scenarios, he says.

"We could pass a threshold during the 21st century that can commit the world
to metres of sea level rise," says Church. "Short-term emission goals are
critical."

Early reductions of emissions are much more effective than actions later in
the century, the scientists say.

"With stiff reductions in 2050 you can end the temperature curve (rise) quite
quickly, but there's not much you can do to the sea-level rise anymore," says
Rahmstorf.

"We are setting in motion processes that will lead to sea levels rising for
centuries to come."


※ 引述《nmns (強哥)》之銘言：
: ※ 引述《j3236494cg (茄子)》之銘言：
: : 台灣本世紀末 逾一成國土將泡水中
: : 自由時報 更新日期:2009/09/02 04:09
: : 汪中和更指出，ＩＰＣＣ預測本世紀結束前
: : ，全球海平面將至少上升一公尺，台灣會有一
: ^^^^
: : 成沿海或低窪地區被淹沒，宜蘭沿海、台北
: : 盆地、桃竹沿海、彰化、雲林、嘉義、台南、
: : 高雄、林邊、佳冬、台東，都是被淹沒的高
: : 風險區。台灣山區及沿岸的環境危機夾擊民眾
: : 生存空間，該怎麼辦？值得深思。
: : http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/090902/78/1qaja.html
: 根據IPCC的預測
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise#Future_sea_level_rise
: 最誇張的情況下，到2100年時海水面上升也「不超過」一公尺，
: 上文中「至少」一公尺，究竟是汪中和老師所說，還是記者自己的誇大呢？

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