有關地震預測的一篇論文 - 地球科學討論

1. Earthquake prediction is pivotal both for reduction of the
damage from earthquakes and for fundamental understanding of
lithosphere dynamics. That twofold goal, usual for prediction
research, brings up the key questions considered here:
對於減少地震傷害以及了解岩石圈內的動力學基礎，地震預測扮演著重要的樞紐。
通常針對預測的研究，考慮以下主要問題將會是往後更深遠的目標；
(a) What predictions are already possible?
(b) How can damage from earthquakes be reduced on the basis of
such predictions, given their limited accuracy?
(c) What fundamental knowledge has been gained in earthquake
prediction research? Thecommon underlying question is, what comes next?
(a) 哪些預測是有可能的?
(b) 如何從這些基本的預測來減少地震傷害，以及給定它們最終的準確性?
(c) 在地震預測的研究之中，哪些基礎學識已被使用? 常見的問題是，接下來會發生什
麼?
2. This problem is of urgent practical importance because earthquakes
pose a rapidly growing threat to survival and sustainable development
of our civilization. This is due to the well-known interrelated
developments: proliferation of radioactive waste disposals, high dams,
nuclear power plants, lifelines, and other objects whose damage poses
an unacceptable risk; self-destruction of megacities; destabilization
of the environment; and growing socio-economic volatility of the global
village. For all of these reasons, seismic risk has escalated also in
numerous regions of low seismicity. Today, a single earthquake may take
up to a million lives, cause material damage up to $1.0E+12, raze a
megacity, trigger a global economic depression, render a large territory
uninhabitable, and destabilize the military balance in a region.
這問題有著急需實行的重要性，因為地震對於我們的文明與生命之持續發展扮演著快速
增長的一個威脅。這是起因於以下眾所週知的相互發展；放射性廢料處置時的擴散，
高水壩的興建，核能電廠，lifeline(???)，以及其他損害至讓人不被接受的風險；
百萬人口城市的自毀；環境的不穩定；以及全世界農村社會經濟的泡沫化。由於這些因素
的種種，地震風險已經也在很多小區域的震害之中節節攀升。 今日，一個單一地震可能
奪走百萬人以上的生命，導致物資損失高達1200億美元(應該是美元拉)，夷平一座百萬人
口以上的城市，引發全球經濟的崩盤，導致大片土地變的不適合居住，以及某些區域軍事
力量平衡的不穩定。
Earthquake prediction is necessary to undertake disaster preparedness
measures, reducing the damage from the earthquakes. This requires that
the accuracy of prediction be known, but, contrary to common belief, a
timely prediction of low accuracy may be very useful.
地震預測必須著手於災害先前的準備測量，減少地震的損失，這需要知道預測的準確性，
但是，相對於一般人的認知，一個低準確性的及時性預測可能非常有用(不懂這句話)。
3. Earthquake prediction is necessary also for fundamental understanding
of the dynamics of the lithosphere, particularly in the timescales of
100 years and less. So far, this problem is in the same stage as the
theory of gravity was between T. Brahe and J. Kepler: the study of
heuristic regularities (啟發原則) that are necessary to develop a
fundamental theory.
地震預測必須針對岩石圈動力學的基礎認知，尤其是在100年以內的時間等級。
到目前為止，這個問題仍舊站在不拉許與克普勒(T. Brahe and J. Kepler)重力理論
的檯面上；必須從啟發性原則的學習來發展出一套基礎理論。


(先翻到這裡...想睡了...有翻錯的地方請指正)

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ㄟ~~
請不要這樣看我-.-
我不做黑的-_-

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