澳洲官方利率出爐 - 降4碼!!! - 澳洲

經過今天的討論, RBA董座會議決定利息降四碼(-1.0%) , 也就是來到6.0%
以下是會議報告:

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 100 basis
points to 6.0 per cent, effective 8 October 2008.

Conditions in international financial markets took a significant turn for the
worse in September. Large-scale financial failures in several major countries
were accompanied by serious dislocation in interbank markets and heightened
instability in other markets, including sharp falls in share prices. Official
actions in a number of countries have been aimed at restoring stability, by
adding to short-term liquidity and laying a foundation for longer-term
recovery in the health of balance sheets. Nonetheless, financing is likely to
be difficult around the world for some time ahead. This is also affecting
Australia, albeit by less than in many other countries, given the relative
strength of the local banking system.

Economic activity in the major countries is also weakening, and evidence is
accumulating of a significant moderation in growth in Australia’s trading
partners in Asia. The expansionary effects of the recent surge in Australia’
s terms of trade are still coming through, but some decline in the terms of
trade now looks likely over the coming year, with many commodity prices
having declined from their peaks. This, combined with the likelihood of
below-trend growth in the global economy, suggests that global inflation will
moderate in 2009.

Thus far, the overall path of economic activity in Australia appears to have
been close to what the Board had expected, with the needed moderation in
demand occurring. The next CPI is likely to show an increase of around 5 per
cent over the four quarters to September, but the Bank remains of the view
that inflation will start to decline in 2009.

The recent deterioration in prospects for global growth, together with much
more difficult market conditions even for creditworthy borrowers, now present
the risk that demand and output could be significantly weaker than earlier
expected. Should that occur, inflation would most likely fall faster than
earlier forecast.

Given that background, the Board judged that a material change to the balance
of risks surrounding the outlook had occurred, requiring a significantly less
restrictive stance of monetary policy. The Board also took careful note of
movements in funding costs in wholesale markets. Having weighed these
considerations, the Board decided that, on this occasion, an unusually large
movement in the cash rate was appropriate in order to bring about a
significant reduction in costs to borrowers. The Board does not, however,
regard that movement as establishing a pattern for future decisions.

The Board will continue to assess prospects for demand and inflation over the
period ahead, and set monetary policy as needed to bring inflation back to
the 2–3 per cent target over time.


--