澳洲熱浪預測問題疾速擴大 - 颱風討論

AUSTRALIA is in for a tenfold increase in heat waves as climate change sends the mercury soaring.

A report by the nation's top scientists has found exceptionally hot years - which used to occur once every 22 years - will occur every one or two years.

Under the worst case scenario, every year would be exceptionally hot.

Federal Agriculture Minister Tony Burke said the report, released today, made alarming reading.

"Parts of these high-level projections read more like a disaster novel than a scientific report," he told reporters in Sydney.

CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology wrote the report, which found droughts would occur twice as often and cover twice the area due to climate change.

The surge in heat waves is predicted to hit from 2010.

The proportion of the country having an exceptionally hot year will increase from just under five per cent each year, to as high as 95 per cent.

"The analysis shows that the extent and frequency of exceptionally hot years have been increasing rapidly over recent decades and this trend is expected to continue," the report concluded.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd described the report as "very disturbing".

"What they say in two short points is this ... firstly that when it comes to exceptional or extreme drought, exceptionally high temperatures, the historical assumption that this occurred once every 20 years has now been revised down to between every one and two years," he told ABC Television.

"Secondly, with exceptional circumstances drought conditions ... that they will occur twice as often and with twice the area of droughted parts of Australia included."

Mr Rudd said this was a serious revision of the impact of climate change on drought.

Rainfall is predicted to decline, although the trend was less marked than for temperatures, and some regions will be much harder hit than others.

Southern Australia, Victoria and Tasmania are tipped to dry out most rapidly.

Rainfall has been declining since the 1950s - and about half that decrease was due to climate change, the report found.

The federal government commissioned the report as part of its review of public funding to drought-stricken farmers, called Exceptional Circumstances (EC) funding.

The report recommends EC thresholds should be changed because hotter, drier weather will become normal.

"What's clear is that the cycle of drought is going to be more regular and deeper than ever," Mr Burke said.

"We need to act now to ensure we are better prepared for climate change in the future."

Mr Burke said the government had to take a fresh look at drought funding to farmers.

"If we fail to review drought policy, if we were to continue the neglect and pretend that the climate wasn't changing, we would be leaving our farmers out to dry well and truly," he said.

Mr Burke has promised the review of drought payments will not affect the current round of EC funding. The government has set aside more than $760 million for EC funding this year.

The government commissioned two other reports as part of its drought review - an economic review and a social review. They are not yet completed.

The release of the report follows today's announcement of drought figures in NSW, which put 65 per cent of the state in drought, an increase of more than two per cent on last month.

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http://meteorologytoday.googlepages.com/mr.wind


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※ 編輯: marcoii 來自: 59.125.179.32 (07/07 09:24)