熱帶氣旋生成警戒(TCFA)95W - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 270530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 138.9E TO 18.1N 136.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 138.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262305Z SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICTED PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LLCC. SURFACE OBSERV-
ATIONS FROM YAP (914130) INDICATE SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
12-15 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1001.8 MB WITH NOTEWORTHY 24-HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS OF ABOUT 3 MB. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280530Z.//

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