熱帶風暴MARIE(瑪莉) - 颱風討論

※ 引述《logdog (風暴之軌跡)》之銘言：
: 東太平洋接下來TC的名字
: 名稱 是否出現 目前強度 目前位置 預測路徑 預計侵襲目標
: --> Marie 是 熱帶風暴 18N/120W 往西北西 人畜無害
: ? Norbert 否 N/A N/A N/A N/A
: Odie 否 N/A N/A N/A N/A
: Polo 否 N/A N/A N/A N/A
: Rachel 否 N/A N/A N/A N/A
: 目前東太平洋上有14E TS MARIE活躍著
: 強度45KTS
: 預計會小幅增強至55KTS
: 未來路徑是往西走 進入水溫較低的海面
: 組織比海高斯好很多
: 螺旋結構明顯
: 中心被深層對流覆蓋
: 不過未來海溫較低 後續發展不被看好
: 且未來估計不會對陸地造成影響
: 算是人畜無害...XD
: 另外NHC也對擾動91E發布TCFA
: 不知未來會不會成為下一個熱帶風暴Norbert

看來 Norbert 暫時不會出現囉..


** WTPN21 PGTW 021130 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 97.6W, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACUPULCO, MEXICO, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A 021202Z 91GHZ SSMIS
SHOW WANING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH
HAS SEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO A LACK OF CONSOLIDATION, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.


: 再觀察

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