熱帶風暴古斯塔夫-17 - 颱風討論
By Freda
at 2008-08-29T12:29
at 2008-08-29T12:29
Table of Contents
000
WTNT42 KNHC 290301
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
今晚古斯塔夫的中心已經移動到牙買加南海岸附近或上空. 京斯敦地區的水面觀測
顯示出熱帶風暴級的風力...以及觀測到最低氣壓為九九零毫巴. 古斯塔夫的中心附近
或是東側正產生大範圍的冷對流頂...衛星強度推測從TAFB的六十五節到SAB的五十五節.
初始強度依然維持在六十節
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6...AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 96
HR...THERE IS SOME SPREAD...AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV. THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR....WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS...IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
過去數小時西南運動之後...初始運動有點不明顯 二七零度/六浬. 古斯塔夫位於一個在
佛州的中層脊南側而且鄰接大西洋西側. 動力導引預報古斯塔夫在接下來四十八小時
在脊的西南側轉向西北西...然後持續以正西北西的方向直到九十六小時. 此時導引有些
緊密再一起. 九十六小時候... 就有些分散了...當動力模型在脊無論是否將在古斯塔夫
的北方或西方建立很不一至. GFDL把風暴很快移動到內陸... 然而GFS最新的運算顯示出
風暴在路易斯安那南方減慢. NOGAPS報出九十六小時後左轉朝向德克薩斯海岸.
新的路徑預報是THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE的更新. 路徑在七十二小時後只稍微向左點... 可靠的模型
預測依然在路徑的任何一側. 自從路徑預測在三到五天總是受到極大誤差的影響...
此時要推斷古斯塔夫將會在哪裡和在何處做出最終登陸是不可能的.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.
強度預報依然問題很多. 古斯塔夫此時展現出全方位良好的環流. 但有證據顯示
北向的垂直風切切入環流. 大尺度模型推測這應該約二十四小時消失... 這將會容許
在加勒比海西北部的溫暖水域出現顯著和可能的RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
一個複雜的因素是現在水氣影像看到位於墨西哥灣的高層槽. 大尺度模型預報當
古斯塔夫接近時此特徵向西退縮...包含建立在灣區東南的高氣壓.無論如何...模型
不一致在槽將會移動多少...包含UKMET特別的展現出一部分的可能性當
古斯塔夫接近灣區海岸北部. SHIPS模型報出九十九節的尖峰強度...
LGEM九十四節...GFDL一一一節...以及HWRF一三七節. 後者很明顯地 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. 強度預報已經增強超過了前次GFDL一致良好的預報.
不過...這應該不會讓人驚訝如果RAPID INTENSIFICATION出現以及在七十二小時的時候
古斯塔夫成為四級或五級颶風
--------------------------------
龍捲風影像網(TVN)
http://www.tornadovideos.net/
此網站也有貼出路徑推測
Gustav continues west, nearing hurricane strength
http://0rz.tw/fc4Gy
--
Wetterkurzschlüssel _ WKS
--
WTNT42 KNHC 290301
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
THE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
JAMAICA DURING THE EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON
AREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
今晚古斯塔夫的中心已經移動到牙買加南海岸附近或上空. 京斯敦地區的水面觀測
顯示出熱帶風暴級的風力...以及觀測到最低氣壓為九九零毫巴. 古斯塔夫的中心附近
或是東側正產生大範圍的冷對流頂...衛星強度推測從TAFB的六十五節到SAB的五十五節.
初始強度依然維持在六十節
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6...AFTER A SOUTH OF
WEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS. GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...THEN CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR. THE GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 96
HR...THERE IS SOME SPREAD...AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
WHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV. THE
GFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN
SHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE NOGAPS CALLS
FOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR....WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS
REMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK. SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE
ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS...IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
過去數小時西南運動之後...初始運動有點不明顯 二七零度/六浬. 古斯塔夫位於一個在
佛州的中層脊南側而且鄰接大西洋西側. 動力導引預報古斯塔夫在接下來四十八小時
在脊的西南側轉向西北西...然後持續以正西北西的方向直到九十六小時. 此時導引有些
緊密再一起. 九十六小時候... 就有些分散了...當動力模型在脊無論是否將在古斯塔夫
的北方或西方建立很不一至. GFDL把風暴很快移動到內陸... 然而GFS最新的運算顯示出
風暴在路易斯安那南方減慢. NOGAPS報出九十六小時後左轉朝向德克薩斯海岸.
新的路徑預報是THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE的更新. 路徑在七十二小時後只稍微向左點... 可靠的模型
預測依然在路徑的任何一側. 自從路徑預測在三到五天總是受到極大誤差的影響...
此時要推斷古斯塔夫將會在哪裡和在何處做出最終登陸是不可能的.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.
強度預報依然問題很多. 古斯塔夫此時展現出全方位良好的環流. 但有證據顯示
北向的垂直風切切入環流. 大尺度模型推測這應該約二十四小時消失... 這將會容許
在加勒比海西北部的溫暖水域出現顯著和可能的RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
一個複雜的因素是現在水氣影像看到位於墨西哥灣的高層槽. 大尺度模型預報當
古斯塔夫接近時此特徵向西退縮...包含建立在灣區東南的高氣壓.無論如何...模型
不一致在槽將會移動多少...包含UKMET特別的展現出一部分的可能性當
古斯塔夫接近灣區海岸北部. SHIPS模型報出九十九節的尖峰強度...
LGEM九十四節...GFDL一一一節...以及HWRF一三七節. 後者很明顯地 NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. 強度預報已經增強超過了前次GFDL一致良好的預報.
不過...這應該不會讓人驚訝如果RAPID INTENSIFICATION出現以及在七十二小時的時候
古斯塔夫成為四級或五級颶風
--------------------------------
龍捲風影像網(TVN)
http://www.tornadovideos.net/
此網站也有貼出路徑推測
Gustav continues west, nearing hurricane strength
http://0rz.tw/fc4Gy
--
Wetterkurzschlüssel _ WKS
--
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颱風
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