熱帶風暴漢娜 - 第二十五報 - 颱風討論

000
WTNT43 KNHC 030256
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE LAST COUPLE OF FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT HANNA WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. IT SEEMS THAT
HANNA IS MAKING A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. I HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH PREDICTED THIS LOOP A FEW DAYS AGO...
HOWEVER THEY INDICATED THAT HANNA WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
WHEN IT OCCURRED. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HANNA
HAS WEAKENED EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 55 KT SINCE ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.

在最近數次的偵察機定位顯示出漢娜緩慢地向東移動. 這看起來漢娜正在伊斯帕奧拉島
和與巴哈馬群島東南部之間做小小的順時鐘轉圈. 我對GFDL和HWRF模型在數日前預測
到此現象給予信任... 然而它們指出當漢娜這樣做會更加向北. 自從飛機離開漢娜
雲層分布持續降級... 這有漢娜已經更加減弱的可能性. 無論如何...我們將保持初始強
度
於五十五節自從另一架飛機排定在世界時零六零零時左右前往調查.


STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHEAR HANNA.
BUT...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA VERY SOON...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR. AS THE
UPPER-LOW CUTS-OFF IT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD
TURN THE UPPER-FLOW OVER THE STORM FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. AT
96 HOURS...HANNA WAS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM...BECAUSE IT IS
PREDICTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND THERE COULD STILL BE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
WATER AT THAT TIME.

強烈的東北向高層風持續切向漢娜. 但是...全球模型預報一個高層低壓很快從漢娜的西
邊
切入...這裡有在水氣影像的證據此況正開始發生. AS THE
UPPER-LOW CUTS-OFF IT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD
TURN THE UPPER-FLOW OVER THE STORM FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.新的強度預報和前次報告相似並接近於指引一致性.
在九十六小時... 漢娜維持於熱帶風暴...因為這預料將相當接近美國東北海岸
以及到時候應該還持有熱帶風暴等級的風力於水域

(我看不懂這句型...)

THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT HANNA WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
VERY SOON AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER
HANNA ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD
INITIAL LOCATION...BUT THEREAFTER IT REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A REMINDER...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK AS SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT WOULD HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON BOTH THE TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL. A G-IV
MISSION WAS FLOWN THIS EVENING AND THE DATA GATHERED BY THIS
AIRCRAFT SHOULD GET ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE.

路徑模型推測和那將很快會開始往西北移動當大型高層槽往北離開美國東北海岸...
容許位於大西洋的副熱帶脊向西建立. 此分布預示接下來數日漢娜沿著正西北向
路徑隨著前進速度增加. 有些路徑模型已向東轉移一點點...但不夠保證能讓官方
預報做出改變. 接下來最初的二十四~三十六小時因更加向東的起始位置使
新的路徑已向東修正... 但之後她依然和前次報告非常接近.
一架灣流五型已在今晚出勤,由此機收集的資料應該會收入世界時零時的模型指引中

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熱帶風暴艾克和約瑟芬目前尚遠故暫不會寫
卡里娜已降級為熱帶低壓
(基本上東太平洋颶風還不會去管...除非會瞄準洛杉磯過來)

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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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