防氣旋風暴 印度撤離30萬人 - 颱風討論

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WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 85.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.8N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.4N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 85.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE FOR TC 02B HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE COAST OF INDIA AND HAS RECENTLY BECOME
CLOUD FILLED. DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
HAS DECREASED AS INTERACTION WITH THE COAST HAS DISRUPTED THE
INFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN THE
TRACK OF TC 02B AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02B IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL
QUICKLY START TO DISSIPATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//

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Time of issue: 1830 hours IST Dated: 12-10-2013
(Red Message)

Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/33

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over westcentral & adjoining
northwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh
and Odisha Coast.

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over westcentral & adjoining
northwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards during past 3 hours with
a speed of 20 kmph and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 12thth
October 2013 over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near
latitude 18.70 N and longitude 85.20 E, about 65 km southeast of Gopalpur.
It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha
coasts close to Gopalpur (Odisha) within few hours as a very severe cyclonic
storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph gusting to 240 kmph.

Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST) Position Sustained maximum surface Category
(Lat.N/Long.E) wind speed (kmph)
=============================================================================
12-10-2013/1730 18.7/85.2 210-220 gusting to 240 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/2330 20.2/84.3 170-180 gusting to 200 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530 21.2/84.0 80- 90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1130 22.0/83.5 50- 60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
=============================================================================

Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal

(I) Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places
and isolated extremely heavy falls (more than 25 cm) would occur over
Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs. Isolated
heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over coastal areas of West
Bengal commencing from afternoon of today i.e. the 12thth October.

(II) Gale wind: Gale winds speed reaching 210-220 kmph gusting to 235 along
and off coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south
Odisha would prevail at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and
off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be phenomenal. It will
be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal coast during the above
period.

(III) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 metre.
above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam,
Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam
district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

(IV) Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh:
Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large
scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail
and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from
flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to
agricultural crops.

(V) Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along
north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast. Total suspension
of fishing operations. Large scale evacuation of population from
coastal areas. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable
areas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

Post Landfall outlook: Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain
the intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken
into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving northwestwards
across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with
heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places
would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very
heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh
and Jharkhand. Squally wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph would also prevail
for 6 hours and 60-70 for subsequent 6 hours over Odisha during the same
period.


The next bulletin will be issued at 2330 hrs IST of today, the 12th October,
2013.


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