颶風古斯塔夫 - 第三十報 - 颱風討論

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WTNT42 KNHC 010257
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER
IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING...SEEMS TO HAVE
STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL
AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL
AROUND 100 KT...WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW
MINUTES AGO...AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED...
SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA. DROPSONDE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
FROM THE SOUTH. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY
THREE STRENGTH. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE
GFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING
TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.

衛星影像顯示出古斯塔夫比今晚稍早更加對稱,以及展示出更加組織化. 過去幾小時內...
然而... 在核心對流區東半圓已有許些升溫. 中心氣壓... 在之前已下降... 看起來穩定
在最近的估計值九五四毫巴. 飛行高度與SFMR資料指示最大表面風力依然在一零零節
左右...包含幾分鐘前觀測到的SMFR尖峰風力一零零節...以及飛行高度
尖峰風力一一四節.
SMFR資料指示出颶風風力已經擴張了...使氣壓梯度大範圍散開. 從本署灣流機的投落送
資料現出在三零零到五零零毫巴間一些乾空氣從南方進入古斯塔夫中心. 此資料推測
古斯塔夫登陸強度將會可能以非現在的第三級強度登陸. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE
OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE GFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE
IN THE REMAINING TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.


THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE. AFTER THAT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY. AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.


起始運動為三一五節/十四浬. 這裡沒有向路徑預報對古斯塔夫在一個位於墨西哥灣的中
到高層低壓和在俄亥俄山谷的中層高氣壓之間移動的觀點做出改變. 指引模型非常
緊密一起在前次官方預報直到四十八小時,以及新的預報正好在前次路徑之上. 此後...
當預報中的向西的風切增加...模型清楚地分叉開來. 就像之前...官方預報報出在
七十二小時後預期古斯塔夫將會被切割...
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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