颶風艾克 - 第十六報 - 颱風討論

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WTNT44 KNHC 050247
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE REMAINS A SMALL...BUT IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS
SOME EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AS THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE HURRICANE. DESPITE THE EVIDENCE OF SHEAR....THE EYE HAS
CLEARED AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY -70 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS.
BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 115 KT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO
RE-STRENGTHEN.

在衛星影像中艾克依然是小的...但很印象深刻的颶風. 在南半緣的幅散很良好...
但這裡有些預期中的東北向風切的證據... 當幅散變成受限於颶風的北半部.
儘管有風切的證據... 風眼已清晰並仍被攝氏零下七十度的雲頂繼續包圍.
客觀和主觀的德沃夏克強度測量都支持一一五節的初始強度.
預料東北向風切在接下來數日內增加... 預期會造成一些減弱.
強度預報... 尚未從前次預報改變的一報... 再次於統計指引中的更加減弱和動態模型
中的維持在強烈颶風的報告中間. 約二日內... 預報風切減弱應該容許艾克再次增強

IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12...
HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD. IKE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE
TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT
BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

這顯露出艾克在今晚已轉西向,或是二七五度/十二節... 然而一個短期運動事實上
正西向. 預期接下來二到三日內艾克移動西到西南西... 往氣旋北方的強烈的中層脊.
此後... 預報艾克接近己的西緣並開始轉西北西. 最大的問題何時何地將會轉向.
路徑指引明顯的分成兩支... GFS...NOGAPS...和UKMET顯示出在巴哈馬轉向...
同時HWRF...GFDL...和ECMWF取艾克在古巴轉向或是佛州海峽. 直到情況明顯,
哪一個解釋將會勝出... 官方預報依然在兩者之間...接近模型一致性和前次報告

AS A REMINDER...4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY
LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

再提醒一次... 四到五日的預報是容易遭受在路徑和強度裡淺在的大誤差

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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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