94W TCFA - 颱風討論

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9417web.txt
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9417.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 180830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 115.7E TO 11.8N 121.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 115.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N
118.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 115.8E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND BROAD CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). OBSERVATIONS
FROM PUERTO PRINCESA SHOW A THREE MILLIBAR PRESSURE DROP OVER THE
LAST THREE HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST
TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. A 180142Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 15-20
KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ON THE
DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FEEDS INTO THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND GETS ABSORBED INTO
NEARBY TY 25W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190830Z.
//
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老J對蘭恩西側的擾動94W發出TCFA，不過近期數值對於東側的擾動93W比較有反應。
94W若能順利發展，目前較有機會會被蘭恩帶來到南台灣補水，或是一路向西登陸南越。

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