95W TCFA+GW - 颱風討論

利奇馬

路徑:

JTWC: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1019.gif
JMA: https://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/images/zooml/1909-00.png
CWB: https://bit.ly/2YFXb9x

GFS 0805 12Z: https://i.imgur.com/xtJnFk0.gif
EC 0805 12Z: https://imgur.com/2PfcZvU.gif

渦度圖:
https://i.imgur.com/uSXWa2j.gif

風切趨勢:
https://i.imgur.com/znfZoI1.jpg

中低層風場:
https://i.imgur.com/Ys17P1m.jpg

中高層風場:
https://i.imgur.com/cTvmLTv.jpg

高空環境: 8/5 12Z
https://i.imgur.com/qK5nsvs.jpg

風場掃描:
https://i.imgur.com/QX8opDr.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/YVZ2Ido.jpg

(資料補充中)

95W (準柯羅莎)

WTPN21 PGTW 051330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 144.8E TO 21.8N 140.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY
283 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SWATH OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY IMPROVING, WITH A BROADER REGION
OF LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE (29-31C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SOON AFTER AS IT TAKES A
MEANDERING NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061330Z.//
NNNN

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1019.gif

熱帯低気圧
令和元年08月05日22時20分 発表

<05日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 16度50分(16.8度)
東経 144度50分(144.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<06日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 19度30分(19.5度)
東経 142度55分(142.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

https://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html

分頁太多 再開一篇討論~

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