94W TCFA+GW - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 031200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 132.0E TO 19.6N 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 132.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY
680 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 031531Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE
DEPICT A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
SLOWLY MIGRATING OVER THE CENTER, THOUGH STILL CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ARC OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE
TO INFLOW FROM THE EAST FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
WITH LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLC, STRONG
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ARC, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSETTING THE AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW. WHILE
THERE ARE CURRENTLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS IN THE SOUTHERN SURGE
FLOW, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LLC WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
MEANDERS TO THE NORTHEAST, BEFORE A POSSIBLE TURN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041200Z.//
NNNN

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9419.gif

熱帯低気圧
令和元年08月03日22時25分 発表

<03日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 15度35分(15.6度)
東経 132度35分(132.6度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<04日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 17度00分(17.0度)
東経 133度30分(133.5度)
進行方向、速さ 北北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 150km(80NM)

https://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/

EC和GFS不約而同地認為94W(準利奇馬)即將在菲東生成
目前太平洋高壓脊線在日本南方海域
導引緯度較高的范斯高颱風穩定朝西北西前進
後續龐大的94W挾帶季風低壓往北推擠高壓
逼迫太平洋高壓的勢力進行南北向調整
並且在低緯度區西伸
持續導引94W北上
目前資料看來侵襲台灣的機率較低
但仍有部分系集顯示高壓後期轉強迫使94W西折靠近台灣
後續動向仍要留意

目前季風低壓東側除了有94W之外
西側南海預計也有系統生成
在94W北上的過程將帶動季風低壓+西南季風北上
南海預測生成的系統走向將是影響西南季風強風軸位置的關鍵
一周後期對於台灣而言天氣轉趨不穩
中南部的天氣更要多加留意南海系統的生成...

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